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20 June 2017, 04:53 | Austin Hogan
Oil prices dipped early on Friday and were not far off six-months lows as an ongoing supply overhang weighed on markets despite an OPEC-led effort to cut production and prop up prices. As chart 1 alongside shows, break-even prices for USA shale oil regions have dropped substantially over 2013-2016.
The upshot of all of this is as obvious as it will be disheartening to petrostates: the oil market will swing further into oversupply next year. Both benchmarks notched a weekly loss exceeding 1.6 percent.
"Libya and Nigeria have brought more oil online and that's really hindering" OPEC's efforts, said Tariq Zahir, crude trader and managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors in NY.
US stockpiles have dwindled 9 in 10 weeks, failing to support oil futures because of the slow pace of declines.
The IEA said yesterday it expected growth in non-Opec supply to be higher next year than growth in overall global demand.
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"Our first look at 2018 suggests that United States crude production will grow year-on-year. but such is the dynamism of this extraordinary, very diverse industry it is possible that growth will be faster", the report said. "It's a huge resource, it's changed everything", said Gary N Ross, global head of oil at energy analysts Pira, of U.S. shale. This is according to new data from the Energy Information Administration, who said that U.S. crude stocks, in particular, fell by a far lower amount than they expected. OPEC also revised down its forecast for non-OPEC oil supply growth this year by 110,000 bpd to 58.14 million bpd.
This implies that crude oil price, which stood at $48.27 per barrel, last week, would increase to $51 per barrel or more, signalling a good omen for Nigeria, which depends on crude oil for its fiscal responsibilities.
Rising U.S. oil output, particularly from shale drillers, is contributing to the ineffectiveness of the OPEC-led cuts, according to Reuters. For OECD inventories to return to the normalized levels, OPEC needs to drain by 34 million barrels a month or 1 million barrels for the next 10 months.
Crude output from OPEC nations rose by 290,000 bpd in May to a 2017 high of 32.08 million barrels per day, according to the EIA.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration report on oil inventories is due this week on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
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