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giftedviz.com September 24, 2018


Warmer weather, rising non-Opec output threaten oil market balance

15 November 2017, 12:23 | Austin Hogan

International Gas Union Reaction to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2017

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The less-than-bullish forecast for Canadian oil and gas, means the IEA has cut the country's investment spend in the country to US$1.08 trillion in 2040 (from US$1.68 trillion in its forecast last year) - part of a global cut in investment projections. This is expected to cut 2.5 million bpd, or about 2 percent, off global oil demand by that time.Still, the IEA's "New Policies Scenario", based on existing legislation and announced policy intentions, expects oil prices to rise towards $83 a barrel by the mid-2020s.

The largest disruptive force to supply will be shale production in the U.S. - the IEA estimates USA crude oil will reach peak output in the 2020s of around 17m bpd.

Brent crude oil prices recently climbed to two-year highs of more than $60 a barrel due to supply disruptions, geopolitical concerns and a growing expectation that an Opec-led agreement to reduce production will be extended through 2018.

The Paris-based group said it cut its demand outlook for next year by 190,000 barrels a day, and global production could vault above demand by 600,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2018, and by 200,000 barrels a day in the second quarter.

Solar power will surge globally in the coming decades, but oil demand will also continue to grow, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

The US government said on Monday US shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd.

Oil prices have risen in recent months, after both Opec and non-Opec countries struck a landmark deal at the end of a year ago to cut back production to combat a global oil glut.

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Traders said they were cautious about betting on further price rises.

"Over the same period, United States gas companies ramped up their exports to Canada and Mexico, pushing net U.S. imports of pipeline gas down to around 25 bcm in 2016, compared with 80 bcm some ten years earlier", IEA economists said.

The IEA also revised down its 2018 oil demand forecast for Brazil from 3.15 million bpd to 3.13 million bpd.

"Prices ... are starting to look like a pause or pullback is needed", said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

Over the next two decades, the global energy system would be reshaped by four major forces: the United States, as it becomes the global oil and gas leader; rapid deployment of renewables; growing share of electricity in the energy mix; and China's new economic strategy, taking it on a cleaner growth path.

"It's quite spectacular, because you're going to see the number of cars on the road double from one billion to 2 billion, thanks to electric vehicles and fuel economy standards", said Laura Cozzi, head of the Energy Demand Outlook division.



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