September 18, 2018

National Hurricane Center: 40% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

15 May 2018, 11:13 | Darnell Patrick

National Hurricane Center: 40% Chance Tropical Cyclone Forms Off Florida

Disturbance in Southeastern Gulf

For the Panhandle and south Alabama, the system could provide heavier rainfall by mid-week, which in turn could lead to what Shephard calls "nuiscence flooding".

In addition, hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30 and brings an increased chance for rainfall. Key West recorded more than twice the previous record for rain on a May 13 on Sunday, and the South Florida Water Management District recorded 3.25 inches in North Miami Beach.

Cars moving on a highway during heavy rain. "But it has, at best, only a 40 percent chance of doing so", Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center, told Newsweek. In fact, there were two named storms before June 1 in 2012 (Tropical Storm Alberto and Tropical Storm Beryl) and again in 2016 (Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storm Bonnie).

The National Hurricane Center on Monday continued to watch an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico that could become an early-season tropical or subtropical storm this week.

It was the fifth-straight day in the 90s; we expect one more shot at 90ºF this week before rain and storms drop temperatures down a little closer to 'average'. A combination of this and a weak disturbance riding up the Florida Gulf Coast will help to bring storm chances back to region.

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Regardless if the low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico turns into something or not, it will increase the moisture across the southeast. "Some heavier pockets of rain could result in some flash flooding, but overall this rain won't be too heavy for too long".

A soaker of a system is developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

U.S. Drought Monitor valid May 8.

After being relative dry for the last several months, welcome to the rainy season.

"This will actually be good news for Central Florida", Bridges said.

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