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Trump has options if markets panic on Iran
15 May 2018, 11:04 | Austin Hogan
FGE's Fesharaki Sees 1.5 Million Barrels of Iran Oil Removed Per Day
On the bearish side some traders believe prices won't move almost as high because of rising USA production and the possibility that other suppliers from within OPEC will step up output in order to counter the Iran disruption. Iranian crude oil is something India looks up to.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Sunday he is hopeful that the United States and Europe can come to an agreement over how to deal with Iran, after President Donald Trump threatened to sanction European companies that continue doing business there.
Both oil futures contracts hit their highest since November 2014 last week at $78 and $71.89 a barrel respectively as markets anticipated a sharp fall in Iranian crude supply once US sanctions bite later this year. That would hurt not just Iran's economy but also the dollar's liquidity, as the global oil trade undergirds the greenback, said Edward Al Hussainy, senior analyst, global rates and currency at Columbia Threadneedle in Minneapolis. Brent the previous day hit its highest since November 2014 at $78 a barrel. The five-year supply average is 420 million barrels. But oil ministers have since said other metrics should be considered such as oil industry investment, suggesting they are in no hurry to end supply cuts.
Even so, OPEC and its allies were still trimming output more than their supply-cutting pact required. That is roughly 800,000 bpd less than the amount OPEC says the world needs from the group this year. Other analysts think that the reduction of Iranian exports could be closer to 1 million bpd.
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Speculators are betting heavily that the sanctions will lead to supply disruptions that will make crude oil an attractive enough asset to drive prices to $80 -$100 per barrel later this year. Additionally, global inventories have tightened amid strong demand from Asia.
Side by side, the U.S. government also reimposed sanctions on the country.
"Fast-growing USA tight oil production is increasingly faced with costly logistical constraints in terms of outtake capacity from land-locked production sites", OPEC said.
It follows a decision by US PresidentDonald Trump to dump a nuclear agreement with Iran and reinstate "the highest level of economic sanctions" on Iranian oil, potentially pulling nearly 1 million barrels of oil a day from the global market.
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