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giftedviz.com October 17, 2018


China trade war and Brexit threaten global growth says International Monetary Fund

09 October 2018, 06:29 | Austin Hogan

Concerns over macroeconomic situation of the country keep investors jittery

Concerns over macroeconomic situation of the country keep investors jittery

That could result in higher-than-expected interest rates from the Federal Reserve and stock market uncertainty. Angola, contracting by 0.1 percent this year.

The revised estimates includes a worsening outlook for developing economies this year and next compared to the July report, as well as downgrades for the U.S. and China in 2019.

It said trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which has led the countries to implement tarriffs against each other, had played a role in the tempered global expectations.

Pakistan's fiscal deficit was on target to hit 7.2 per cent of gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending in June 2019, but the government has introduced measures to bring it closer to 5 per cent.

The dominant U.S. economy has been shielded so far from the ill effects of the trade war, thanks to stimulus through tax cuts and spending policies, but that will wear off by 2020, the International Monetary Fund said.

Obstfeld said the International Monetary Fund does not see a generalized pullback from emerging markets, nor contagion that will spill over to those emerging economies which have stronger economies and have thus far avoided major outflows, such as some in Asia and some oil and metals exporting countries.

"Growth is now much more uneven" than six months ago, he told reporters.

Growth forecasts for emerging markets were given a more severe haircut by the Washington-based lender.

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It was now predicting 3.7 percent global growth in both 2018 and 2019, down from its July forecast of 3.9 percent growth for both years. It urged the government to relax controls on its currency and to do more to help the poor to help lay the foundations for sustainable growth.

If the trade war continues, it could take a significant bite out of global growth, according to the fund.

The IMF now expects next year's growth rate to come to 2.4 percent, against 1.8 percent in April.

The IMF report said "protectionist rhetoric" was being "increasingly turned into action", warning such uncertainty "could lead firms to postpone or forgo capital spending and hence slow down growth in investment and demand".

Pressure on the lira saw inflation rates soar to almost 25 percent in September, marking the highest levels since President Erdogan came to power 15 years ago.

Given a weaker than expected performance in the first half of this year, the growth estimates for the eurozone were revised down 0.2 point to 2.0 percent in 2018. Less than 1 percent of the nation's more than 200 million people file tax returns and its exports, including textiles, lag the region.

Medium term growth could drop below 1.4 percent.

"Securing US approval on the IMF Executive Board will require Pakistan to strike a fine geopolitical balance between the Trump administration's concerns over China's growing economic engagement in Pakistan and the country's bilateral commitments", said Bilal Khan, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Plc.



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