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giftedviz.com December 11, 2018


International Monetary Fund upgrades outlook on Russian Federation as economy recovers

11 October 2018, 02:19 | Austin Hogan

IMF predicts India will grow at 7.3% in 2018-’19

IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld speaks during the World Economic Outlook press conference in Nusadua Bali on Oct 9 2018

Pakistan Finance Minister Asad Umar, who is attending the Fund's annual meeting in Bali, announced earlier this week that the government would seek talks with the IMF on a "stabilisation recovery programme".

The benchmark stock index fell to the lowest in more than two years on Monday amid worries of the worsening economic crisis.

International Monetary Fund capital markets director Tobias Adrian said potential shocks to the system could come in many forms, such as higher-than expected inflation that triggers a sharp jump in interest rates or a "disorderly" exit by Britain from the European Union.

Lagarde also touched on the economic situation in eurozone member Italy, warning Rome that it was well-advised to abide by European Union fiscal rules and adhere to the bloc's financial stability regulations amid concerns that the country's 2019 budget could exacerbate financial problems.

Lagarde urged countries to "de-escalate" trade frictions and fix global trading rules, rather than abandon them.

Global economic expansion remains strong, but the trade war could potentially shock investor confidence, with "significant adverse consequences" for global macroeconomic activity, Tobias Adrian, IMF monetary and capital markets department director, told reporters.

'A sharp tightening of global financial conditions could be triggered by a further escalation of trade tensions or by a sudden shift in risk sentiment caused by rising geopolitical risks or policy uncertainty in major economies'.

They show that a burst of strong growth, fueled partly by USA tax cuts and rising demand for imports, was starting to wane.

United Kingdom lawmakers willing to vote down Brexit deal
Speaking to business leaders in Brussels, Mr Barnier said negotiators were "intensively" working to find a deal. But veterinary and food security controls will have to take place at the border.


Images surface of Saudis allegedly sent to target journalist
Trump on Monday expressed concern about Khashoggi's case and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for a thorough investigation. Khashoggi's fiance has asked US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump to "help shed light" on his disappearance.


Saudi envoy to USA expresses shock at false reports
The Washington Post , for which the self-exiled Khashoggi wrote columns over the past year, pressed for release of evidence. Turkey has said it will search the consulate for signs of what happened to Khashoggi, but has not said when it will do so.


But higher USA interest rates have also helped send emerging market currencies into a tailspin, as countries that borrowed heavily in dollars race to pay back debt.

Some energy-rich emerging market countries have fared better due to higher oil prices, with Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation seeing forecast upgrades.

It predicted 2.9 percent USA growth this year, dropping to 2.5 percent next year, and to 1.8 percent in 2020, as the effect of US tax cuts wears off and the trade war with China inhibits growth.

The IMF estimated that the global economy will grow 3.7% in 2019, down from its July projection of 3.9%, the first time since July 2016 that the fund has downgraded its global growth forecast.

"It also expects the economy to grow 1.4 per cent in 2019, down from a previous estimate of 1.7 per cent".

The IMF's analysis suggests that there is a 5 per cent probability, emerging market economies (excluding China) could face debt portfolio outflows of US$100 billion or more over a period of four quarters (equivalent to 0.6 per cent of their combined GDP), broadly similar in magnitude to the Global Financial Crisis. The report showed household debt to GDP in China has more than doubled over the past decade to just under 50%, while that of other emerging market economies has remained relatively stable at just under 20%.

Trump has led the escalating trade war because of what he believes are bad policies he said have created an $800 billion US trade deficit.

Washington simultaneously threatened to add tariffs to a further $267 billion (£205 billion) of products, which saw Beijing retaliate with 10 percent tariffs on $60 billion (£46 billion) of USA imports.



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