January 20, 2019

Wet and mild: Warm winter predicted for much of the US

20 October 2018, 11:26 | Ross Houston

A plow makes its way under a railroad bridge as light snow falls during a snowstorm March 21 in Lebanon N.J

A plow makes its way under a railroad bridge as light snow falls during a snowstorm March 21 in Lebanon N.J

Tampa meteorologist Jennifer Hubbard said the Tampa Bay area can except mostly the same, with mild winter temperatures near or slightly above average, as well as more rain than usual.

"We expect El Nino to be in place in late fall to early winter", said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, in a statement.

Because of a likely El Nino, which is the episodic warming of the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, NOAA favors above average amounts of precipitation along the southern tier of the United States, creeping up the East Coast through the Mid-Atlantic. "The last cold winter that the country saw was back in 2013-14, and I'd expect MI to probably follow that pattern". On Thursday, Oct. 18, 2018, the National Weather Service forecasted a warmer than normal 2018-2019 winter for the northern and western three-quarters of the U.S.

It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

The organization's predictive maps placed ME in a sweeping band of orange, signifying that center forecasters believe the state is among those with a 40 percent to 50 percent chance of being "warmer than normal".

The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the United States is expected to have below-average temperatures, according to the outlook.

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Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across the southern tier of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and OH are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of the Southwest, Southern California, the central Great Basin, central Rockies, Northern Plains and portions of the interior Pacific Northwest. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter.

-This outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.

The Farmer's Almanac said that for its winter outlook, the temperatures are going to be cold with "plenty of snow".

The next update from NOAA will come mid-November. That means, invariably, some areas will experience conditions opposite the most likely forecast even if most locations are correctly predicted, Halpert said.

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