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giftedviz.com November 12, 2018


Americans Prepare to Render Midterm Verdict on Trump

06 November 2018, 10:28 | Austin Hogan

Why young Democrats hold the key to threatening Donald Trump's hold on Congress

Youth turnout could hold the key in the US mid terms and threaten Trump's hold on Congress

The Democrats rolled out their biggest gun in the final days of the campaign: former president Barack Obama, who on Sunday made a last-ditch appeal for an endangered Senate Democrat in Indiana. Having elected someone president, Americans are collectively ready to punch him on the nose after just 24 months.

Obama also laid into the president for the investigations into Russian interference in the USA election that are weighing on his administration. Even in the nine midterm elections when the president's approval rating was above 50 percent, his party still lost an average of 14 seats.

"You can hold the president accountable and say you'll fix health care at the same time", Mack said. Speaking to reporters as he left the White House en route to his rallies, Trump seemed to dampen expectations for his party in the House.

In the 69th Illinois House district, Rep. Joe Sosnowski, a Republican, will defeat Angie Bodine, 58 percent to 42 percent.

The second is that it gives Trump a boogeyman - or, more apt, a boogeywoman.

Pollsters say Democrats may win the 23 seats they need to take over the House of Representatives, and possibly 15 or so extra seats. "And at the most extreme, they're going to expect the Democrats who, if they win majority in the House, to go ahead and impeach the president".

Another way to read the tea-leaves is to look at the popularity of the two parties themselves, as revealed in the generic ballot. He estimated turnout would reach 45 percent; that would be the highest for a midterm election in 50 years. Republicans are now behind by 8.5 percent.

If ever there was an off-year election for younger voters to break tradition, this is it.

To their dismay, Republican candidates have found that last year's tax cuts are a vote-loser.

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So why is the Senate not going the same way as the House?

Democrats have accused Republicans of trying to suppress turnout among racial minorities in states like Georgia, where Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp is overseeing his own election. True, incumbent senators from the opposition party tend to win reelection. From stoking fears about illegal immigration to warning of economic collapse if Democrats are victorious. Bill Nelson is also up against it in Florida.

And in Indiana, FiveThirtyEight says Democratic Sen. And as Trump travels the country armed with a divisive and racially charged closing campaign message, the test for Democrats now feels at once similar and more urgent than it did two years ago: They failed to stop Trump then, what if they fall short again?

Beto O'Rourke has mounted a credible challenge against Ted Cruz in Texas. But don't be surprised to see Mitch McConnell still in charge when all is said and done. The strangers faced each other from opposite edges of the great American divide, Democrat versus Republican, both convinced the election is among the most consequential in their lifetimes and that they must save the nation from the other side. The hearings at which Kavanaugh was confronted by his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, backfired spectacularly as men - and many women - all over the American heartland sided with Kavanaugh.

To take control of the Senate, Democrats need to keep all the seats they now hold, and take two further seats, which is harder than it sounds. Of course, there may be no stopping the polarization. The difference is that the Democrats have learned their lesson and are now unabashedly waging the info war - big data, bots, and all.

Although the visuals Trump uses to push his agenda are all about illegal immigrants, the skewering is equally for all manner of immigrants.

Yet there is another scenario. In a White House speech, the president said he would sign an order preventing border-crossers from claiming asylum, a legally questionable proposition, and said he'd told military troops he's mobilizing to the border to respond to thrown rocks like they were "rifles". She loathes Trump, no doubt.

Winning control of the House would allow the Democrats to block Republican policies, launch investigations into Trump's administration and instigate impeachment proceedings. We would have won if you'd focused more on the economy, Republicans on the Hill will answer. "He thinks he's amusing when he says some of these things, but the consequences falling on the wrong ears are not amusing, they're tragic".

Niall Ferguson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Predicting what comes after Tuesday's votes are counted is a whole lot harder.



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