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giftedviz.com November 20, 2018


Iran draws sting from oil prices

08 November 2018, 01:42 | Darnell Patrick

Crude Oil

Crude Oil

US President Donald Trump said he gave temporary exemptions to India and seven other major importers of Iranian oil as they sought US' "help" and he did not want to drive oil prices "up to United States dollars 100 a barrel or USD 150 a barrel". It will need to once again secure the support of rival-turned-partner Russian Federation, which has less need for high oil prices.

"The U.S. administration will come to regret taking these ridiculous measures", Anadolu News Agency quoted Zarif, as saying. There's also the risk of antagonizing the kingdom's key geopolitical ally, President Trump.

Oil rose as OPEC and its allies were said to plan talks on fresh production cuts next year, responding to recent increases in crude inventories amid surging US supply.

A return to oil production cuts by the Organisation of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies can not be ruled out next year, a senior OPEC source said yesterday. In August, a surprise surge in output meant the country briefly overtook Russian Federation as the world's biggest crude producer, with output of 11.3 million barrels a day.

Earlier, South Korean Ambassador to Tehran Ryu Jeong-hyun said that despite many European companies leaving Iran under the pressure of US sanctions, South Korean firms understand the significance of the Iranian market and have chosen to stay. "Mr. Trump's administration must understand that its anti-Iran policies won't bear fruit and therefore have to be changed", Zarif said.

USA sanctions could end up squeezing Iranian output so much that other producers won't need to cut.

Shale has plenty of potential to surprise. The U.S. government forecast the nation's oil output will increase at a record pace this year, while industry data signaled American crude inventories rose last week.

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Then there are political considerations.

Saudi Minister Al-Falih discussed the agenda of the Abu Dhabi meeting with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak by phone on Monday, an official familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified as the information isn't public yet.

Russia, the most important non-Opec partner in the coalition, has ramped up output to a post-Soviet record and President Vladimir Putin has said he's comfortable with prices in a $65 to $75 a range, giving some downside from the current level of $72 in London.

The Saudis may also struggle to persuade the rest of OPEC to back a deal pledging production cuts.

Pompeo's decision to give India exemption from imposition of certain sanctions for the development of the port is driven by the South Asian strategy, which was announced by President Donald Trump in August. Others may have grown tired of having their production policy steered by the kingdom.

"Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation have increased production, and prices have come down $15 a barrel", Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, Iran's representative to OPEC, said in an interview. Opec's own projections show that next year the world will need about 1 million barrels a day less than the 31.8 million its 15 members pumped in September.



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