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giftedviz.com January 19, 2019


Oil prices rise on trade talk optimism, OPEC cuts

09 January 2019, 11:27 | Austin Hogan

Crude Oil

Crude Oil

That wrong-footed OPEC with Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation both pumping more than 11 million b/d at that time in a bid to offset the risk of lost Iranian barrels and left the market awash with crude.

Brent for March settlement gained 8 cents to $57.41 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London.

"Very high Saudi and Russian production, in particular, has heightened supply volatility, so whether Opec and Russia maintain production discipline and renew agreements to limit output are key concerns going into the new year", said Steve Wood, Moody's managing director, oil and gas.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose $1.39 on the day to $58.45 a barrel by 1224 GMT, up from December's slide below $50, which was its lowest level since July 2017.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures settled up $1.26, or 2.6 per cent, at $49.78 a barrel. Last Thursday, all three major USA stock indexes plunged by 2 percent after a dire revenue warning from Apple heightened fears of a global economic slowdown.

Futures in NY rose as much as 1.6 per cent on Monday following six days of gains, the longest streak of increases since July 2017.

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Oil closed at a three-week high as US negotiators touted progress in trade talks with China and investors gained faith that OPEC will shrink output. Record high crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has pushed up US inventories.

Oil prices have ticked up again today as markets react to Opec's oil cuts and hopes of a thaw in US-China trade relations.

"Surely, there will be more twists and turns in the saga and increasing USA tariffs on Chinese goods after March from 10 percent to 25 percent can not be excluded", Tamas Varga of PVM Oil Associates said.

Easing US-China trade tensions would underpin oil at current levels. Though it will enjoy a portion of support from the lower oil prices, the comprehensive economic growth across the world may slow down significantly, resulting in tumbling market conditions. Traders are also expecting that the decision of OPEC and some non-OPEC members including Russian Federation to reduce crude output by 1.2 million barrels per day from this month will significantly alter supply - demand imbalance in the market.

Record high crude oil production has also pushed up United States inventories, which rose by almost 17 per cent in 2018 to their highest in well over a year, according to weekly data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Friday.

Brent crude has risen by around $4 since the cuts came into force on 1 January.



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